The Doomsday Calculation: How an Equation that Predicts the Future Is Transforming Everything We Know About Life and the Universe

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Little, Brown Spark #ad - Now, as the foundation of big data, Bayes' formula has become a linchpin of the digital economy. But here's where things get really interesting: bayes' theorem can also be used to lay odds on the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence; on whether we live in a Matrix-like counterfeit of reality; on the "many worlds" interpretation of quantum theory being correct; and on the biggest question of all: how long will humanity survive?The Doomsday Calculation tells how Silicon Valley's profitable formula became a controversial pivot of contemporary thought.

The doomsday calculation is compelling reading for anyone interested in our culture and its future. From the author of are you smart enough to work at Google?, a fascinating look at how an equation that foretells the future is transforming everything we know about life, business, and the universe. In the 18th century, the british minister and mathematician Thomas Bayes devised a theorem that allowed him to assign probabilities to events that had never happened before.

The Doomsday Calculation: How an Equation that Predicts the Future Is Transforming Everything We Know About Life and the Universe #ad - Drawing on interviews with thought leaders around the globe, it's the story of a group of intellectual mavericks who are challenging what we thought we knew about our place in the universe. It languished in obscurity for centuries until computers came along and made it easy to crunch the numbers.

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Rock Breaks Scissors: A Practical Guide to Outguessing and Outwitting Almost Everybody

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Little, Brown Spark #ad - Rock breaks scissors is mind-reading for real life. Will the next tennis serve go right or left? Will the market go up or down? Most people are poor at that kind of predicting. We are hard-wired to make bum bets on "trends" and "winning streaks" that are illusions. People are predictable even when they try not to be.

Rock Breaks Scissors: A Practical Guide to Outguessing and Outwitting Almost Everybody #ad - A practical guide to outguessing everything from multiple-choice tests to the office football pool to the stock market. Poundstone reveals how to overcome the errors and improve the accuracy of your own outguessing. William poundstone demonstrates how to turn this fact to personal advantage in scores of everyday situations, from playing the lottery to buying a home.

Rock breaks scissors is a hands-on guide to turning life's odds in your favor. Yet ultimately we're all in the business of anticipating the actions of others.

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Do Dice Play God?: The Mathematics of Uncertainty

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Basic Books #ad - A celebrated mathematician explores how math helps us make sense of the unpredictableWe would like to believe we can know things for certain. We want to be able to figure out who will win an election, if the stock market will crash, or if a suspect definitely committed a crime. From forecasting, to figuring out how to win let's Make a Deal, Do Dice Play God? is a surprising and satisfying tour of what we can know, to medical research, and what we never will.

But the odds are not in our favor. As award-winning mathematician ian Stewart reveals, over the course of history, mathematics has given us some of the tools we need to better manage the uncertainty that pervades our lives. Life is full of uncertainty - indeed, scientific advances indicate that the universe might be fundamentally inexact - and humans are terrible at guessing.

Do Dice Play God?: The Mathematics of Uncertainty #ad - When asked to predict the outcome of a chance event, we are almost always wrong. Thankfully, there is hope.

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Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street

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Hill and Wang #ad - It worked. Shannon became a successful investor, too, topping even Warren Buffett's rate of return. Thorp took the "Kelly formula" to Las Vegas. Fortune's formula traces how the Kelly formula sparked controversy even as it made fortunes at racetracks, casinos, and trading desks. Thorp used the kelly system with his phenomenally successful hedge fund, Princeton-Newport Partners.

In 1956, two bell labs scientists discovered the scientific formula for getting rich. It reveals the dark side of this alluring scheme, which is founded on exploiting an insider's edge. Shannon believed it was possible for a smart investor to beat the market—and William Poundstone's Fortune's Formula will convince you that he was right.

Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street #ad - The other was John L. They realized that there was even more money to be made in the stock market. Kelly Jr. A texas-born, gun-toting physicist. Together they applied the science of information theory—the basis of computers and the Internet—to the problem of making as much money as possible, as fast as possible.

Shannon and MIT mathematician Edward O. One was mathematician claude Shannon, neurotic father of our digital age, whose genius is ranked with Einstein's.

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Prisoner's Dilemma: John Von Neumann, Game Theory and the Puzzle of the Bomb

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Anchor #ad - Introduced shortly after the Soviet Union acquired the atomic bomb, the prisoner's dilemma quickly became a popular allegory of the nuclear arms race. Though the truman administration rejected preventive war the United States entered into an arms race with the Soviets and game theory developed into a controversial tool of public policy—alternately accused of justifying arms races and touted as the only hope of preventing them.

Most important, prisoner's Dilemma is the incisive story of a revolutionary idea that has been hailed as a landmark of twentieth-century thought. A masterful work of science writing, prisoner's dilemma weaves together a biography of the brilliant and tragic von Neumann, a history of pivotal phases of the cold war, and an investigation of game theory's far-reaching influence on public policy today.

Prisoner's Dilemma: John Von Neumann, Game Theory and the Puzzle of the Bomb #ad - Though the answers may seem simple, their profound implications make the prisoner's dilemma one of the great unifying concepts of science. Game theory was readily embraced at the rand corporation, the archetypical think tank charged with formulating military strategy for the atomic age, and in 1950 two RAND scientists made a momentous discovery.

Called the "prisoner's dilemma, " it is a disturbing and mind-bending game where two or more people may betray the common good for individual gain. Should you watch public television without pledging? . Exceed the posted speed limit?

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Life Finds a Way: What Evolution Teaches Us About Creativity

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Basic Books #ad - For instance, in picasso's forty-some iterations of Guernica, incessant reshuffling, we see the same combination of small steps, and large, almost reckless, leaps that characterize the way evolution transformed a dinosaur's grasping claw into a condor's soaring wing. By understanding these principles, we can also better realize our own creative potential to find new solutions to adversity.

Ultimately, enabling us to better adapt, life Finds a Way offers a new framework for the nature of creativity, grow, business, and change in art, or science--that is, in life. Rarely is either a linear climb to perfection--instead, "progress" is typically marked by a sequence of peaks, plateaus, and pitfalls.

Life Finds a Way: What Evolution Teaches Us About Creativity #ad - How the principles of biological innovation can help us overcome creative challenges in art, business, and scienceIn Life Finds a Way, biologist Andreas Wagner reveals the deep symmetry between innovation in biological evolution and human cultural creativity.

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Head in the Cloud: Why Knowing Things Still Matters When Facts Are So Easy to Look Up

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Little, Brown Spark #ad - Combining big data survey techniques with eye-opening anecdotes, Poundstone examines what Americans know and don't know on topics ranging from quantum physics to pop culture. The real-world value of knowledge in the mobile-device age. More people know who Khloe Kardashian is than who Rene Descartes was. Why should we bother learning facts at all?Bestselling author William Poundstone confronts that timely question in HEAD IN THE CLOUD.

Most can't find delaware on a map, correctly spell the word occurrence, or name the largest ocean on the planet. Head in the cloud asks why we're okay with spelling errors on menus but not on resumes; why Fox News viewers don't know which party controls Congress; why people who know "trivia" make more money than those who don't; how individuals can navigate clickbait and media spin to stay informed about what really matters.

Head in the Cloud: Why Knowing Things Still Matters When Facts Are So Easy to Look Up #ad - He shows that many areas of knowledge correlate with the quality of our lives--wealth, health, and happiness--and even with politics and behavior. But how important is it to fill our heads with facts? A few keystrokes can summon almost any information in seconds. Hilarious, humbling, and wildly entertaining, HEAD IN THE CLOUD is a must-read for anyone who doesn't know everything.

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Priceless: The Myth of Fair Value and How to Take Advantage of It

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Hill and Wang #ad - Price consultants" advise retailers on how to convince consumers to pay more for less, and negotiation coaches offer similar advice for businesspeople cutting deals. That price has a hypnotic effect: the profit margin of the 99 Cents Only store is twice that of Wal-Mart. In psychological experiments, people are unable to estimate "fair" prices accurately and are strongly influenced by the unconscious, irrational, and politically incorrect.

Why do text messages cost money, while e-mails are free? Why do jars of peanut butter keep getting smaller in order to keep the price the "same"? The answer is simple: prices are a collective hallucination. In priceless, the bestselling author William Poundstone reveals the hidden psychology of value. Rooted in the emerging field of behavioral decision theory, Priceless should prove indispensable to anyone who negotiates.

Priceless: The Myth of Fair Value and How to Take Advantage of It #ad - It hasn't taken long for marketers to apply these findings. Prada stores carry a few obscenely expensive items in order to boost sales for everything else which look like bargains in comparison. People used to download music for free, then Steve Jobs convinced them to pay. How? by charging 99 cents. Prices are the most pervasive hidden persuaders of all.

The new psychology of price dictates the design of price tags, cell phone plans, wage packages, real estate offers, tort demands, rebates, menus, supermarket aisles, "sale" ads, and corporate buyouts.

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The Universe Speaks in Numbers: How Modern Math Reveals Nature's Deepest Secrets

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Basic Books #ad - The universe speaks in numbers is essential reading for anyone interested in the quest to discover the fundamental laws of nature. How math helps us solve the universe's deepest mysteries One of the great insights of science is that the universe has an underlying order. Since the 1970s, however, experiments at the world's most powerful atom-smashers have offered few new clues.

So some of the world's leading physicists have looked to a different source of insight: modern mathematics. A masterful account of the some of the most groundbreaking ideas in physics in the past four decades. The supreme goal of physicists is to understand this order through laws that describe the behavior of the most basic particles and the forces between them.

The Universe Speaks in Numbers: How Modern Math Reveals Nature's Deepest Secrets #ad - For centuries, we have searched for these laws by studying the results of experiments. But in the universe speaks in numbers, award-winning science writer and biographer Farmelo argues that the physics they are doing is based squarely on the well-established principles of quantum theory and relativity, and part of a tradition dating back to Isaac Newton.

With unprecedented access to some of the world's greatest scientific minds, Farmelo offers a vivid, behind-the-scenes account of the blossoming relationship between mathematics and physics and the research that could revolutionize our understanding of reality. These physicists are sometimes accused of doing 'fairy-tale physics', unrelated to the real world.

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Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way: Understanding Statistics and Probability with Star Wars, LEGO, and Rubber Ducks

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No Starch Press #ad - But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. And you'll learn real skills, like how to:- how to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief- calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for- Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions- Calculate distributions to see the range of your data- Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from themNext time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data.

Find out the probability of ufos landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples. By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun.

Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way: Understanding Statistics and Probability with Star Wars, LEGO, and Rubber Ducks #ad - Bayesian statistics the Fun Way will change that. This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Fun guide to learning Bayesian statistics and probability through unusual and illustrative examples. Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions.

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